Top Risks for 2026 Part 3 – Eurasia Group Report – Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1212

Top Risks for 2026 Part 3 – Eurasia Group Report – Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1212

Dear Colleagues! This is Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1212 for Pharma Veterans. Pharma Veterans Blogs are published by Asrar Qureshi on its dedicated site https://pharmaveterans.com. Please email to pharmaveterans2017@gmail.com  for publishing your contributions here.

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Preamble

This 3-part blog post is based on a Eurasia Group report titled ‘Top Risks for 2026’. Link at the end.

About Eurasia Group. [Quote]. Today's geopolitical environment is increasingly complex, with risks coming at an accelerated pace as the world order undergoes significant change.  It has never been more important for business decision-makers and investors to incorporate political risk into their strategies to spot the opportunities and manage the risks that politics creates—and to lead their organizations through turbulent times. Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. [Unquote] 

Part III: Security, Resources, and Society – The Emerging Battlegrounds of 2026

A Complex Security Ecology

Security risks in 2026 extend well beyond traditional military confrontation. Eurasia Group’s outlook paints a world where hybrid conflict, resource scarcity, and the erosion of governance norms create an intricate landscape of strategic vulnerabilities. These challenges affect not only states but societies, economies, and global institutions.

Hybrid Warfare and Russia’s “Second Front”

Eurasia Group identifies a shift in European security dynamics, where the nature of conflict with Russia moves beyond conventional battlefields into hybrid warfare, including cyber, information, and gray-zone tactics.

Characteristics of Hybrid Conflict

• Cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure

• Disinformation campaigns that destabilize public opinion

• Proxy engagements using autonomous technologies

Unlike traditional conflicts, hybrid warfare blurs the line between peace and war, making escalation thresholds unclear and more dangerous. The threat lies not just in direct military engagement but in systemic interference with democratic and institutional resilience.

Governance Vacuums and the G-Zero World

One of the recurring themes from Eurasia Group over recent years, and likely reiterated for 2026, is the persistence of a “G-Zero” environment: a world in which no single power or coalition has sufficient influence to enforce global norms or manage collective challenges.

Consequences of G-Zero

• Multilateral cooperation becomes harder.

• States increasingly act in transactional self-interest.

• Issues like climate, cybercrime, and health pandemics lack global governance responses.

This vacuum creates space for non-state actors and rogue strategies to assert influence, worsening instability and strategic unpredictability.

Weaponized Resources: Water as Leverage

Turning to environmental security, the 2026 forecast also highlights water scarcity as a geopolitical risk multiplier. With almost half the global population already under water stress, and critical treaties like the Indus Waters Treaty under strain, control over water resources may become a tool of strategic influence.

Regional Flashpoints

• South Asia: Water disputes between nuclear-armed neighbors

• Africa: Large infrastructure projects like Ethiopia’s Nile dam lacking binding governance

• Downstream effect: population displacement and economic disruption

Water scarcity isn’t just an environmental problem — it becomes a security issue with direct geopolitical consequences.

AI and Social Stability: A Security Frontier

The report also highlights concerns around AI platforms whose business models could have destabilizing societal impacts. Rather than “superhuman machines,” the immediate risk is the use of AI to manipulate behavior, opinions, and information environments at scale.

Security Implications

• Information dominance can shape elections and public sentiment

• Ethical and regulatory vacuum magnifies misuse risks

• State and non-state actors may weaponize AI for political influence

Societies may confront deepening polarization and weakening of shared reality, creating fertile ground for internal instability.

Security at Home: A Rising Theme

Although the Eurasia Group forecast focuses on global geopolitical risks, internal security dynamics, including political polarization, social division, and weakened governance, are closely linked to broader instability.

For example, patterns emerging in the U.S., such as intensified polarization and executive authority contests, are mirrored in rising domestic risk trends like political violence and social fragmentation. This adds to the security burden within countries, compounding external pressures.

The Interconnected Nature of Risks

Taken together, the risks identified for 2026 form a web of interdependent threats:

• Political instability in major powers weakens global order.

• Economic competition becomes a strategic battleground.

• Resource scarcity increases conflict potential.

• Technology is both a tool and a frontier of insecurity.

This interconnectedness makes risk management more complex, requiring multidimensional strategies that bridge diplomacy, economics, security policy, technology governance, and resource stewardship.

Implications for Governments and Businesses

For Governments

• Strengthen institutional resilience against hybrid threats.

• Engage in multilateral frameworks that can help govern digital and environmental domains.

• Prepare for resource conflicts with diplomatic tools and sustainable policy planning.

For Businesses

• Integrate geopolitical risk assessment into corporate strategy.

• Diversify supply chains in anticipation of political and trade volatility.

• Invest in cyber resilience and compliance ecosystems that can withstand hybrid disruption.

Conclusion: A World in Flux

Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 paints a picture of a world where systemic transformation and interlinked threats challenge the assumptions that shaped the post–Cold War order. From political revolutions within major powers to hybrid warfare, economic fragmentation, and environmental contestation, this is a pivotal moment requiring vigilance, strategic adaptation, and collaborative governance.

In an era where volatility is the norm, the most successful actors, whether countries or corporations, will be those that anticipate complexity, invest in resilience, and seek opportunities for cooperation amidst competition.

Concluded.

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For most blogs, I research from several sources which are open to public. Their links are mentioned under references. There is no intent to infringe upon anyone’s copyrights. If, any claim is lodged, it will be acknowledged and duly recognized immediately. 

Reference:

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2026