Pakistan Demographics at 2040 – Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1174

Pakistan Demographics at 2040 – Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1174

Dear Colleagues! This is Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1174 for Pharma Veterans. Pharma    Veterans Blogs are published by Asrar Qureshi on its dedicated site https://pharmaveterans.com. Please email to pharmaveterans2017@gmail.com  for publishing your contributions here.

Credit: Aa Dil

Credit: Ahmer Graphy

Credit: Ali Madad Shaikhani

Credit: Muneeb Malhotra

Credit: Shahzad Aziz

Preamble

Pakistan stands at the threshold of a silent revolution, not one led by politics or technology, but by demographics. The country’s population, once overwhelmingly young, is gradually aging. This transformation, combined with the escalating burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), is redefining the very nature of healthcare demand, delivery, and innovation.

By 2040, Pakistan’s median age is projected to reach nearly 30 years, and the number of citizens over 60 will have nearly doubled. While this shift is a sign of progress, longer lives, lower infant mortality, and better survival rates, it also brings enormous socioeconomic and healthcare challenges.

The Demographic Transition: A Nation Growing Older, Unevenly

Pakistan’s population still has one of the youngest age profiles in South Asia, but that may be changing rapidly. Fertility rates have fallen from 6.6 births per woman in 1980 to 3.3 in 2024 and are expected to drop below 2.5 by 2040. Meanwhile, life expectancy is projected to rise modestly to 73 – 75 years, if health investments are made.

This means that the elderly (60+) could represent 12–14% of the population by 2040, roughly 30 million people, compared to about 14 million today. Most of them will live with multiple chronic conditions, requiring long-term medical, social, and financial support.

Implications

The old dependency ratio will rise, placing fiscal pressure on younger taxpayers and national health budgets. 

Pension and insurance systems must adapt to longer lifespans and new disease burdens. 

The health system must transition from acute, episodic care to chronic disease management and geriatric services.

The New Face of Disease: NCDs as the Dominant Challenge

By 2040, noncommunicable diseases will account for over 75% of deaths in Pakistan, up from about 58% today. The leading causes will be cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancers, and respiratory illnesses, all of which are linked to urban lifestyles, poor diet, pollution, and aging.

The rise in NCDs will require a complete redesign of Pakistan’s healthcare architecture, from hospital structures and medical education to pharmaceutical product portfolios and insurance models.

Key Projections (Based on WHO & McKinsey Data)

Diabetes: Expected to rise from 33 million to over 45 million cases by 2040.

Heart disease: Will continue to be the leading cause of premature mortality, especially among men aged 40–65.

Cancer cases: Could double, with breast, lung, and colorectal cancers leading in incidence.

Mental health disorders: Projected to rise sharply, particularly among the elderly and urban women.

Strategic Implications for Pharma

A massive shift from acute-care drugs (antibiotics, painkillers) to chronic therapies (antihypertensives, antidiabetics, statins, oncology, neuropsychiatric drugs).

Demand for combination therapies, personalized treatments, and digital adherence tools will soar.

There will be growing opportunities for biosimilars, affordable insulin analogues, and targeted oncology drugs.

The Care Economy: From Hospitals to Homes

An aging population transforms not just the diseases but also the care delivery model. Older patients prefer aging in place, living independently at home while receiving remote medical monitoring.

Emerging Care Trends

Home-based health services: Remote diagnostics, teleconsultations, and medication delivery will become standard.

Elderly care centers: A new industry segment will emerge, combining healthcare, nutrition, and social engagement.

AI-powered health management: Continuous monitoring of vitals, fall detection, and medication adherence will reduce hospital dependence.

Policy Need

Pakistan must establish regulations and accreditation for home healthcare providers and develop national standards for geriatric care, covering medical, social, and ethical dimensions.

Industry Opportunity

Pharma companies can bundle medicines with digital health services, creating a continuum of care. Partnering with tech firms to develop smart pillboxes, digital trackers, or remote diagnostic support could redefine patient engagement.

Healthcare Workforce: Re-Skilling for the Silver Generation

Pakistan’s health workforce is not yet equipped for an aging society. Most doctors specialize in infectious diseases, pediatrics, or surgery — not in geriatrics, palliative care, or chronic disease management.

Reforms Needed

Introduce Geriatric Medicine as a specialization in medical universities.

Train nurses and community health workers in long-term care and home monitoring.

Build multidisciplinary care teams that combine doctors, nutritionists, psychologists, and physiotherapists.

Pharma’s Role

Pharmaceutical firms can support training through medical education grants, continuing learning programs, and AI-assisted clinical decision tools that help doctors manage polypharmacy in elderly patients.

Pharmaceutical Market Outlook: The Silver Opportunity

By 2040, Pakistan’s pharmaceutical market could double in value, driven by NCD therapies, vaccines, biologics, and preventive health products.

Projected Shifts

Therapy area mix: 70% of market share from chronic therapies.

Consumer behavior: Patients will demand quality, safety, and digital integration in their medicines.

Export potential: Certified, high-quality generics for NCDs could find markets in Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

Growth Enablers

Local production of biosimilars and vaccines.

AI in drug discovery to reduce cost and time-to-market.

Collaborative R\&D hubs between academia and industry.

Green manufacturing to meet sustainability standards required by global buyers.

Pharma companies that embrace innovation early, in digital health, real-world evidence, and patient-centric solutions, will emerge as regional leaders by 2040.

Technology and Data: The Backbone of Future Health

AI and digital health technologies will not just support but drive the future of care. Pakistan must harness big data, machine learning, and cloud infrastructure to build predictive, efficient, and patient-centered systems.

Strategic Directions

National Health Data Grid: Unified digital records integrating hospitals, pharmacies, and laboratories.

AI Predictive Analytics: Early warning systems for NCD hotspots and aging-related risks.

Telepharmacy platforms: Ensuring safe and authentic medicine delivery to elderly patients.

Pharma & Healthtech Collaboration

Local pharma can partner with AI firms to create disease registries, run real-world evidence trials, and offer AI-driven patient support programs that personalize treatment pathways.

Economic and Policy Considerations

Aging societies demand financially sustainable healthcare models. Without reform, Pakistan risks overwhelming its healthcare budget as chronic diseases multiply.

Policy Recommendations

Develop a National Geriatric Care Policy 2030–2040, integrating pensions, healthcare, and social welfare.

Introduce mandatory health insurance for all citizens by 2035.

Encourage private sector investment through tax breaks for geriatric and chronic care infrastructure.

Expand pharmaceutical export incentives for high-value, quality-assured medicines.

By aligning fiscal, health, and industrial policy, Pakistan can turn aging from a burden into an economic opportunity — generating jobs in health services, biotech, and eldercare industries.

Cultural and Social Shifts

One of the most overlooked dimensions of aging is social support. In Pakistan’s traditional family system, the elderly were cared for at home. But urbanization, migration, and changing family dynamics are eroding that model.

Response Needed

Promote community-based elder support networks.

Incentivize NGOs and social enterprises to establish senior activity centers and wellness clubs.

Encourage intergenerational volunteerism, linking youth with elders for digital literacy and social connection.

These measures not only improve mental health but also reduce dependency and isolation, key factors affecting longevity and happiness.

The Pharma Responsibility: From Pills to Purpose

By 2040, the pharmaceutical industry will not be judged solely by revenues or new molecules, but by how effectively it contributes to healthier, longer, and more dignified lives.

To stay relevant, pharma companies must:

Evolve from product sellers to health partners.

Integrate ethical AI, transparency, and sustainability into every step of their operations.

Build trust-based relationships with patients, caregivers, and regulators.

Focus on affordability and equity, ensuring no one is left behind as care evolves.

This is not just good business; it is the moral and strategic foundation for the next phase of Pakistan’s pharmaceutical growth.

Sum Up

The convergence of demographic aging, chronic disease, and technological disruption offers Pakistan a rare moment in history — to reshape its healthcare and pharmaceutical systems from reactive to predictive, from fragmented to integrated, from curative to preventive.

If Pakistan acts decisively, investing in data, prevention, innovation, and inclusion, it could achieve a life expectancy of 75+ years by 2040, a thriving health economy, and a pharmaceutical sector recognized for innovation, quality, and compassion.

The challenge is immense, but so is the opportunity. As the population grows older, Pakistan’s mission is clear: To ensure that living longer also means living better.

Concluded.

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