World Population Trajectory – Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1154

World Population Trajectory – Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1154

Dear Colleagues! This is Asrar Qureshi’s Blog Post #1154 for Pharma Veterans. Pharma Veterans Blogs are published by Asrar Qureshi on its dedicated site https://pharmaveterans.com. Please email to pharmaveterans2017@gmail.com  for publishing your contributions here.

Credit: Airam Dato-on

Credit: Elias Alex

Credit: Kindel Media

Summary

This blog post is based on a UN report. Link at the end.

The world's population is projected to continue growing for the next 50 to 60 years, peaking at approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080. After reaching this peak, it is expected to gradually decline to around 10.2 billion by the century's end. Currently, one in four people lives in a country where the population has already peaked.

Fertility rates are declining, with women bearing on average, one child less fewer than in 1990, resulting in a global fertility rate of 2.3 live births per woman as of 2024. Life expectancy is on the rise again after the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, with projections of 77.4 years by 2054. Notably, by 2080, the number of individuals aged 65 and older is expected to surpass that of children under 18, and by the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants. Countries facing demographic aging may need to leverage technology to enhance productivity and create lifelong learning opportunities, supporting multigenerational workforces and extending working lives as needed.

While there is some uncertainty around the future size of the world’s population, the estimated likelihood that it will peak within the current century is 80 per cent, with the peak likely to occur sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100. The size of world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller, or about 700 million people fewer, than anticipated a decade ago.

The peak in the projected size of the global population is due to several factors including lower-than-expected levels of fertility observed in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China, and slightly faster-than-anticipated fertility declines in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa. China (1.4 billion) and India (1.4 billion) remain the two most populous countries in the world.

Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054 and in 62 through 2100, including Australia, Canada and the United States of America.

The Future of Our Planet: Navigating World Population Trends to 2100

The world’s population has soared, from 7 billion in 2011 to 8.2 billion today. Yet the latest UN data shows clear signs of a demographic shift: population growth is slowing, aging is accelerating, and the future will look dramatically different by end of century.

The Numbers: Growth, Peak, Then Decline

As of 2024, the global population stands at approximately 8.2 billion. 

The UN projects that the world population will continue to climb for several decades, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion by 2084, not the previously estimated 10.4 billion by 2086.

After that point, a modest decline is expected: by 2100, the population may fall back to approximately 10.2 billion.

This updated projection reflects a clear trend: global population growth is slowing, not accelerating.

What’s Behind the Slowdown?

Regional Variations

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to see a significant population increase, with projections showing a 79% rise to 2.2 billion by 2054. By the end of the century, the population could reach 3.3 billion, accounting for more than one-fifth of the global increase. Nine countries, including Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger, are likely to double in size between 2024 and 2054. As a result, the rankings of the most populous countries may shift, with Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo eventually surpassing the USA, and the United Republic of Tanzania potentially entering the top ten largest countries by the century's end.

Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades.

It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world’s second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million), followed by Japan and the Russian Federation (21 and 10 million, respectively). Due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s.

Rapid Fertility Decline

In the 1960s, global fertility rates exceeded 5 births per woman. As of 2023, that figure has halved to around 2.2–2.3 births per woman. Two-thirds of countries are now below the replacement rate of 2.1, meaning their populations will naturally decline without migration. Some—for example, China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain have reached ultra-low fertility levels, under 1.4 children per woman.

The New Demographic Reality: An Aging World

The global median age is set to rise from 31 years today to 42 years in 2100. The number of seniors (65+) will more than double, growing from 857 million to 2.4 billion. Elderly individuals will represent about 24% of all humanity by 2100. By the 2070s, older adults are expected to outnumber youth under 18, a complete demographic reversal from today’s norm.

This shift from youthful dominance to a greying world will redefine policy needs, from pensions to healthcare, and from employment to social services.

Why It Matters: Impacts and Opportunities

Economic Dynamics

Shrinking working-age populations in many regions could pressure economic growth, tax revenues, and public spending on pensions and elderly care. However, a longevity dividend, leveraging healthier older populations via extended working lives or re-skilling, could offset some risks.

Environmental Trends

A slower population surge may ease environmental pressures reducing demand for natural resources and emissions.

Social Infrastructure

Aging societies will require renewed focus on social infrastructure: healthcare systems, eldercare services, and inclusive urban design. Countries with earlier demographic transitions will need policy models for adaptation.

Policy Imperatives: What Must Change

Reframe Growth Expectations

Past policies assumed continuous population growth. Today, strategy must shift to resilience and equity in aging contexts.

Reform Aging Policies

Pension systems, social safety nets, and workplace norms must evolve to support a demographic gap where elders outnumber working-age groups.

Empower Women

Unlocking reproductive choice—including access to family planning, education, and childcare—can shape sustainable population outcomes. A UNFPA report identifies reproductive agency issues as central to fertility decline.

Invest in Africa

This continent will house a substantial share of humanity. Policies must invest in education, job creation, and urban planning tailored to youthful but rapidly growing populations.

Recognize Diversity in Demographics

Countries will diverge widely; some aging, others youthful. One-size-fits-all policy approaches will fail.

Sum Up

The global demographic narrative is shifting, from a story of incessant growth to one of peaks, plateaus, and aging. Fertility declines and longer lifespans are reshaping population size and structure. While numbers may decline from their projected highs, humanity’s challenges remain profound, ageing, social support gaps, environmental stewardship, and economic adaptation.

Understanding and acting on these insights today ensures nations can build equitable, resilient, and inclusive futures. Strategies must be proactive, embracing demographic transitions as opportunities, not threats.

Concluded.

Disclaimers: Pictures in these blogs are taken from free resources at Pexels, Pixabay, Unsplash, and Google. Credit is given where available. If a copyright claim is lodged, we shall remove the picture with appropriate regrets.

For most blogs, I research from several sources which are open to public. Their links are mentioned under references. There is no intent to infringe upon anyone’s copyrights. If, any claim is lodged, it will be acknowledged and recognized duly. 

Reference:

https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population:~:text=The%20world%20population%20is%20projected,and%2010.4%20billion%20by%202100